Vela RH · Monday report · AE and sales management view · data from Oct 5, 2026 · fictitious data
Will Vela hit the Q4/2026 target, and which deals does it depend on?
Not yet The commit says yes. The track record says no.
The R$259K commit, adjusted by each rep's accuracy, becomes R$103K: 56% of the R$185K target. And the pipeline loses at the end: of the proposals closed out in 12 months, only 16.0% turned into wins.
- New MRR target · Q4/2026R$185K4 of 92 calendar days
- Adjusted commit56%of target (R$103K); the declared figure is R$259K
- Pipeline coverage3.8xbenchmark 3x to 4x
- Proposal → won16.0%proposals closed out in 12 months; benchmark 20% to 30%
Part 1 Q4/2026 forecast
Only the commit exceeds the target, and it's the least reliable numberForecast readings against the target
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- Four ways to forecast the quarter's new MRR, side by side with the target.
- Why measure it
- The forecast drives hiring, cash and next quarter's target. Comparing the readings shows how optimistic the declared number is and which one is the most realistic to take to leadership.
- How to read it
- The dashed line is the target. The declared commit is what the reps say will close; the adjusted one (in coral) discounts how much each rep's commit usually closes. It's the most realistic number.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: MRR value of open deals expected to close in the quarter, by forecast category. Weighted = proposal × 15% + negotiation × 35%. Historical accuracy = the commit at the start of each previous quarter that actually closed.
Why it matters: The weighted forecast and the adjusted commit sit below the line. The quarter depends on deals that haven't shown any signal yet.
Diego accounts for 87% of the commit, with 30.9% accuracyCommit by AE and historical accuracy
Diego Alves accuracy 30.9%
Rafael Torres accuracy 100.0%
Marina Costa accuracy 100.0%
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- For each rep, today's commit and the same commit adjusted by their historical accuracy.
- Why measure it
- Every rep has a bias: some promise more than they close, others less. Historical accuracy corrects the forecast person by person and shows who needs support to qualify better.
- How to read it
- If the adjusted bar is much smaller than the commit bar, the rep usually promises more than they close. The badge shows the accuracy: below 80% it turns coral.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: current commit by rep and, in previous quarters, how much of the start-of-quarter commit turned into wins.
Why it matters: In the last two quarters, his commit closed 30.9%. Adjusted, R$225K becomes R$70K.
See the data
| Rep | Commit | Best case | Pipeline | Accuracy | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Alves | R$225K | R$22K | R$276K | 30.9% | R$70K |
| Rafael Torres | R$34K | R$ 6,630 | R$266K | 100.0% | R$34K |
| Marina Costa | R$ 0 | R$30K | R$171K | 100.0% | R$ 0 |
High confidence closes 42.5%; low, 1.0%Win rate by declared confidence
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- How often deals close, historically, by the confidence the rep declared (high, medium, low).
- Why measure it
- It shows whether the confidence a rep declares means anything. If low confidence almost never closes, it shouldn't count toward pipeline coverage.
- How to read it
- If the bars are very different, the declared confidence is a good signal. The text shows how many open deals and how much MRR are at each level today.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: deals closed out in the last 12 months (wins ÷ closed) by confidence level, and today's open pipeline.
Why it matters: R$394K of the pipeline is in low-confidence deals, which almost never close. They inflate coverage.
15 deals to take to the forecast callDeals for the forecast call
- Aurora Agro S.A.R$17KNo reply since the proposal was sent; attempts by email and WhatsApp.
- Pampa Alimentos do BrasilR$ 3,380An enthusiastic contact, but the decision-maker hasn't joined any meeting yet.
- Granito Saúde LtdaR$16KA competitor offered a lower price; waiting for the customer's answer.
- Guará Varejo 4370R$11KThe customer asked to pick it up again after the payroll close; no date set.
- Cobalto Serviços 4378R$10KSérgio went on vacation and the rest of the team doesn't answer.
- Orvalho Saúde LtdaR$ 4,640A competitor offered a lower price; waiting for the customer's answer.
- Norte Agro LtdaR$21KA competitor offered a lower price; waiting for the customer's answer.
- Carcará Farma LtdaR$ 7,170A competitor offered a lower price; waiting for the customer's answer.
- Quartzo Alimentos LtdaR$ 6,690No reply since the proposal was sent; attempts by email and WhatsApp.
- Ilha Agro do BrasilR$ 4,750Natália went on vacation and the rest of the team doesn't answer.
- Tucano Agro do BrasilR$ 3,600The customer asked to pick it up again after the payroll close; no date set.
- Logística OrvalhoR$40KAn enthusiastic contact, but the decision-maker hasn't joined any meeting yet.
- Ipê MetalúrgicaR$19KAn enthusiastic contact, but the decision-maker hasn't joined any meeting yet.
- Farma ÂmbarR$16KThe customer asked to pick it up again after the payroll close; no date set.
- Vértice ServiçosR$14KThe customer asked to pick it up again after the payroll close; no date set.
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- Forecast deals with at least one risk signal, for the forecast meeting agenda.
- Why measure it
- It turns the forecast meeting into a focused agenda: discussing the deals that show risk, instead of going through all of them.
- How to read it
- The buttons filter by signal (no contact, past-due date, pushed date, only one contact). Each card shows stage, rep, confidence and the latest status.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: open deals expected to close in the quarter and the pipeline hygiene rules.
Why it matters: Each one has at least one risk signal. Filter by signal to build the meeting agenda.
This week, the pipeline lost as much as it gainedThe week's movement
- +13new · R$147K
- 8advanced · R$81K
- 1won · R$34K
- −13lost · R$99K
- 6dates pushed · R$25K
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- What changed in the pipeline between last week's snapshot and today's.
- Why measure it
- Today's pipeline hides what came in and went out during the week. The movement shows whether the pipeline is being replenished as fast as it's consumed.
- How to read it
- Green adds to the pipeline (new, advanced, won); coral removes or delays it (lost, pushed dates).
- Where the number comes from
- Weekly pipeline snapshots saved every Monday by the n8n flow, compared deal by deal.
Why it matters: 13 deals came in and 13 were lost. 6 had their date pushed.
Part 2 The pipeline that supports the forecast
Of 128 proposals, 16 turned into winsFunnel for the period
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- How many deals entered each funnel stage in the period, from MQL to won.
- Why measure it
- It shows which step of the funnel loses the most. That's where a small improvement generates the most revenue.
- How to read it
- The text next to it says what share of the previous stage reached this one. In coral, the stage with the steepest drop.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: entries into each stage in the report period, from any cohort. The table under “See the data” shows conversion by cohort.
Why it matters: The top and middle of the funnel are close to benchmark. The steep drop comes after the proposal.
See the data
| Step (cohort) | Now | Before | Difference | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MQL→SAL | 49.8% | 51.6% | -1.8 p.p. | B2B benchmark ≥ 50% |
| SAL→SQL | 59.2% | 59.1% | +0.1 p.p. | B2B benchmark ≥ 60% |
| SQL→Proposal | 58.8% | 56.9% | +1.9 p.p. | B2B benchmark ≥ 60% |
| Proposal→Negotiation | 24.1% | 25.7% | -1.6 p.p. | — |
| Negotiation→Won | 19.0% | 22.2% | -3.2 p.p. | — |
| Proposal→Won | 4.6% | 5.7% | -1.1 p.p. | B2B benchmark of 20% to 30% |
| MQL→Won | 1.0% | 1.3% | -0.3 p.p. | — |
With 3 or more contacts, a deal closes 7× more oftenWin rate by number of contacts
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- How often proposals close depending on the number of people at the customer involved in the deal.
- Why measure it
- A deal that depends on a single person at the customer falls apart when they leave, change their mind or lose influence internally. Counting contacts per deal shows this hidden risk in the pipeline.
- How to read it
- Longer bar = more wins. Coral is a deal with a single contact; green, with 3 or more.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: proposals closed out in the last 12 months and the number of contacts associated with each deal.
Why it matters: Today, 18 open proposals (R$145K) depend on a single person at the customer.
R$216K stalled for more than 21 daysStalled deals
MRR with no contact for 21+ days, by stage. Highlighted, what counts toward coverage (SQL onward).
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- How much pipeline MRR is stalled, with no contact for more than 21 days, by stage.
- Why measure it
- A deal with no contact for weeks rarely closes, but it keeps adding to coverage. Measuring stalled deals shows how much of the pipeline is real.
- How to read it
- Highlighted, the stages that count toward forecast coverage (SQL onward): money that looks like pipeline but doesn't move.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: date of the last activity on each open deal, counted up to the report date.
Why it matters: That's 25 deals from SQL onward, 19.0% of open MRR. They count toward coverage, but don't move.
From MQL to won, about 70 daysTime between stages
- 3 daysMQL→SAL
- 10 daysSAL→SQL
- 15 daysSQL→Proposal
- 19 daysProposal→Negotiation
- 23 daysNegotiation→Won
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- How many days, at the median, a deal takes at each step, from MQL to won.
- Why measure it
- The sales cycle tells you when today's pipeline turns into revenue. If one step slows down, the quarter's revenue is delayed even with the same volume.
- How to read it
- Each block's width is proportional to the days. The total is the sales cycle.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: dates of entry into each stage for deals won in the last 12 months (median, so one very long deal doesn't distort it).
Why it matters: The medians stayed close to the previous period's (73 days in total): the funnel didn't get slower, it loses at the end.
The new cohorts are still maturingMQL cohorts
16.7% 02/26
18.8% 03/26
14.0% 04/26
25.0% 05/26
2.4% 06/26
6.4% 07/26
2.7% 08/26
0.0% 09/26
mature maturing · proposal → won by MQL cohort
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- What share of each month's proposals (by MQL cohort) turned into wins.
- Why measure it
- Comparing a new cohort with a mature one invents a decline: the new ones haven't had time to close yet. Tracking by cohort shows whether lead quality is really changing.
- How to read it
- Solid bars are mature cohorts; the striped ones are still maturing and tend to go up. Compare the mature ones with each other.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: deals grouped by the month they became MQLs, tracked through today. Mature = older than the median sales cycle.
Why it matters: Cohorts younger than 80 days can still close. Compare the mature ones with each other, not with the new ones.
What to do this week
- Review Diego's commit deal by deal: adjusted, it drops from R$225K to R$70K.
- Take the 15 flagged deals to the forecast call, starting with the commit deals with no contact.
- Remove low-confidence deals (R$394K) from coverage: they close 1.0% of the time.
- Mandatory multithreading from the proposal onward: no proposal with a single contact.
- Review or close out the 25 zombies (R$216K) so coverage becomes real again.