Vela RH · Monday report · leadership view · data from Oct 5, 2026 · fictitious data
Is Vela really growing, how much does growth cost and can the quarter's number be trusted?
Heads up We grew 4.7% in Q3/2026, a little over half of Q2.
New MRR came in at 89% of target and revenue churn was R$108K, against R$40K in Q2. Efficiency remains healthy: a 10.4-month payback and a 5.8x LTV:CAC. The problem isn't investing less: it's closing proposals and holding on to the base.
- ARR at the end of Q3/2026R$35.6M+4.7% in the quarter (+8.5% in Q2)
- New MRR · Q3/2026R$156K89% of the R$175K target
- Net revenue retention (NRR) · 12 months101.7%without expansion (GRR): 93.7%
- Q4/2026 forecast, adjusted55.8%of target; the declared commit says 139.7%
A few indicators, always with contextThe quarter's indicators
| Indicator | Target or benchmark | Q3/2026 | Q2/2026 | Trend | Executive reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New MRR | target R$175K | R$156Koff benchmark | R$223K | worse | 89% of the quarterly target, after 135% in Q2. 16 customers came in, with a smaller ticket. |
| ARR at the end of the quarter | – | R$35.6M | R$34.0M | better | Grew +4.7% in the quarter, against +8.5% in Q2. |
| Net revenue retention (NRR) for the quarter | ≥ 100% | 99.2%close to benchmark | 99.9% | stable | The base shrank: R$86K of expansion didn't cover R$108K of churn and contraction. |
| Revenue churn (churn + contraction) | – | R$108Koff benchmark | R$40K | worse | 12 customers left (9 in Q2), 7 of them SMBs, after the July price adjustment; in revenue, Large Enterprise weighed the most (R$57K). |
| CAC | – | R$79K | R$64K | worse | R$1.3M in sales costs and media for 16 new customers (19 in Q2). |
| CAC payback | up to 12 months | 10.4 monthson benchmark | 7.0 months | worse | Within the benchmark, but worse: a higher CAC and a smaller ticket for new customers. |
| LTV : CAC | ≥ 3x | 5.8xon benchmark | 8.6x | worse | Every real of CAC comes back 5.8 times in margin, within up to 5 years as a customer. |
| Magic number | ≥ 0.75 | 1.3on benchmark | 2.2 | worse | Above 0.75: there's room to invest more in acquisition. |
| Forecast accuracy (commit) | ≥ 85% | 43.0%off benchmark | 60.7% | worse | Of the Q3/2026 commit, 43.0% closed. That's why the Q4 forecast is adjusted by each rep's track record. |
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- The indicators leadership tracks, each with a target or market benchmark, the closed quarter, the previous one and the trend.
- Why measure it
- It's the company scoreboard in one place. Looking at revenue without cost hides expensive growth; looking at cost without retention hides a leaking base. With target and previous quarter side by side, leadership sees what got worse before it becomes a cash problem.
- How to read it
- The dot next to the value says whether it's on benchmark (green), close to it (yellow) or off (coral). The trend says whether the number got better or worse, not just whether it went up: CAC and payback going up is worse. The executive reading sums up the why in one sentence.
- Where the number comes from
- New MRR, ARR, NRR and churn come from the month-by-month customer base; CAC and payback add up sales costs (team, agency and tools) and the quarter's media; accuracy compares the commit at the start of each quarter with what closed. The readings come from fixed rules, not from the LLM.
Why it matters: Growth fell on two fronts at once: less new revenue closed and more revenue lost from the base. Acquisition cost and return remain on benchmark.
From traffic to contract, revenue leaks at the end: 12.5% of proposals turn into winsEnd-to-end funnel
- Website visits 64,930
- 1.7% Contact requests 1,117
- 37.2% MQL 416
- 67.8%bench. 60.0% SQL 166
- 77.1%bench. 60.0% Proposal 128
- 12.5%bench. 20.0% Won R$156K 16 contracts
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- The quarter's entire path, from website traffic to contract, without splitting by channel: visits, contact requests, MQL, SQL, proposal and won.
- Why measure it
- It shows where money is lost along the way. When revenue doesn't come, the question is whether too few people are coming in or too few deals are closing, and the answer changes the decision: invest in media or in sales.
- How to read it
- Between one stage and the next is the conversion rate. Green is on the market benchmark; coral, below it. The card with a coral border is the step that loses the most revenue.
- Where the number comes from
- Visits and contact requests come from GA4; from MQL onward, from the CRM, counting how many companies entered each stage in the quarter. The breakdown by channel and campaign is in the marketing and qualification views.
Why it matters: At the 20.0% benchmark, that would be about R$94K more MRR in the quarter. The top and middle of the funnel are close to benchmark.
R$86K of expansion didn't cover R$96K of churnMRR bridge
MRR at the start of Q3/2026R$2.8M MRR at the endR$3.0M+4.7% in the quarter
Q3/2026 Q2/2026
New
Expansion
Contraction
Churn
Net change
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- How MRR went from the starting value to the ending value of the quarter: what came in (new customers and expansion from existing ones) and what went out (contraction and churn).
- Why measure it
- End-of-period MRR hides what happened in between: you can grow by selling a lot and losing a lot. Splitting new, expansion, contraction and churn shows whether the problem is selling or keeping the base, which call for different teams and actions.
- How to read it
- Bars to the right of the axis add revenue; to the left, in coral, they subtract it. The net change is the sum of the four. The thinner gray bar is the previous quarter, for comparison.
- Where the number comes from
- Vela's customer base, month by month: MRR at the start + new + expansion − contraction − churn = MRR at the end. Quarterly NRR = end MRR from customers who were already customers at the start ÷ their MRR at the start.
Why it matters: 12 customers left (9 in Q2), 7 of them SMBs, after the July price adjustment; in revenue, Large Enterprise weighed the most (R$57K).
Growing still pays off: a 10.4-month payback and a 5.8x LTV:CACEfficiency by quarter
CAC
R$79K
sales costs and media ÷ new customers
R$100K Q4/25
R$81K Q1/26
R$64K Q2/26
R$79K Q3/26
CAC payback
10.4 months
months for a customer to pay back what they cost; bench. up to 12
25.5 Q4/25
7.7 Q1/26
7.0 Q2/26
10.4 Q3/26
LTV : CAC
5.8x
lifetime margin ÷ CAC; bench. ≥ 3x
2.4x Q4/25
7.8x Q1/26
8.6x Q2/26
5.8x Q3/26
Magic number
1.3
net new ARR ÷ the previous quarter's investment; bench. ≥ 0.75
n/d Q4/25
2.3 Q1/26
2.2 Q2/26
1.3 Q3/26
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- How much growth costs and whether that cost pays off, quarter by quarter.
- CAC: how much it costs, on average, to win a new customer.
- Payback: how many months of that customer's margin it takes to pay back the CAC.
- LTV:CAC: how much margin the customer leaves over their whole lifetime for every real spent to bring them in.
- Magic number: how much new annual revenue each real invested in sales and marketing in the previous quarter generated. It's the gauge for when it's worth accelerating investment.
- Why measure it
- Growing isn't enough: growth has to pay for itself. A long payback ties up cash; LTV:CAC below 3x means the customer barely returns what they cost; a magic number above 0.75 says it's worth investing more in acquisition, and below 0.5, that it's better to fix the funnel before putting in more money. These are the numbers a board or investor uses to decide whether the company speeds up or slows down.
- How to read it
- Each mini chart has its own scale; the darkest bar is the most recent quarter and the dashed line is the benchmark. CAC and payback: lower is better. LTV:CAC and magic number: higher is better.
- Where the number comes from
- CAC = (sales costs + the quarter's media) ÷ new customers. Payback = CAC ÷ (average new-customer MRR × 78% gross margin). LTV = average MRR × margin × customer lifetime (1 ÷ monthly revenue churn, capped at 60 months). Magic number = (end MRR − start MRR) × 12 ÷ the previous quarter's investment. Costs and margin are fictitious assumptions.
Why it matters: CAC went up because fewer customers came in with the same team cost. Before cutting investment, the lever is proposal conversion.
The adjusted commit covers 55.8% of the Q4/2026 targetQ4 pipeline and forecast
- R$1.1MTotal pipeline103 deals from SQL onward
- R$395KHot pipeline34 in negotiation, or in proposal with high confidence
- R$743KCold pipeline69 in SQL or proposal without high confidence
Q4/2026: what each forecast reading says, against the R$185K target
Declared commitwhat the team says will close 139.7% of target
Weighted by stageproposal 15%, negotiation 35% 80% of target
Adjusted commitby each rep's track record 55.8% of target
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- The open pipeline from SQL onward, split into hot and cold, and what each forecast reading says about the current quarter's target.
- Why measure it
- The forecast says how much will come in; the pipeline says whether there are enough deals for it. Splitting hot from cold avoids counting on what won't close and shows early whether the quarter needs more demand generation.
- How to read it
- Hot is what's in negotiation, or in proposal with high confidence. In the bars, the dashed line is the target: the adjusted commit (in coral) is the number to take to leadership.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM: MRR value of open deals. Weighted = proposal × 15% + negotiation × 35%. Adjusted commit = each rep's commit × how much of their commit closed in previous quarters.
Why it matters: The declared commit says 139.7%, but the Q3 commit closed only 43.0%. The hot pipeline is what decides the quarter.
5 hot deals add up to R$135K in MRRHot deals
-
Grupo Maré Farma · R$42K/month
Negotiation · low confidenceContext: The customer asked to pick it up again after the payroll close; no date set.
Next step: not logged in the CRM
no next step
-
Grupo Várzea Hotelaria · R$31K/month
Negotiation · high confidenceContext: Camila confirmed the budget; adjusting the rollout schedule.
Next step: Contract review by legal (Oct 7)
-
Trilha Têxtil do Brasil · R$25K/month
Proposal · high confidenceContext: The customer is comparing with their current solution and asked for a textile industry case study.
Next step: Review the proposal scope (Oct 16)
date past due
-
Ipê Metalúrgica · R$19K/month
Proposal · high confidenceContext: An enthusiastic contact, but the decision-maker hasn't joined any meeting yet.
Next step: not logged in the CRM
date pushed 2+ timesno next step
-
Energia Quartzo · R$18K/month
Negotiation · high confidenceContext: Negotiating a discount on the rollout; the decision-maker is favorable.
Next step: Final negotiation round (Oct 6)
date past duedate pushed 2+ times
Explain this chart
- What it shows
- The largest hot deals in the open pipeline, with the context of the latest status, the next step and the risk signals.
- Why measure it
- A few large deals decide the quarter. Seeing the context, next step and risk of each one lets leadership act where it makes a difference, before the deal goes cold.
- How to read it
- The coral border marks deals with at least one risk: no recent contact, a past-due or pushed date, a single contact at the customer or no next step.
- Where the number comes from
- CRM (fictitious): latest status, next step and date logged by the rep. The risks come from the pipeline hygiene rules.
Why it matters: These are the largest deals in negotiation or with high confidence. The ones marked at risk call for action from leadership this week.
3 decisions for this week
- R$94K of MRR per quarter stays between proposal and contract Who owns proposal conversion, and with what target? See it in the sales view →
- R$108K of revenue lost from the base in Q3/2026 (R$40K in Q2) Review the SMB price adjustment and get the customer team on the at-risk accounts? See the MRR bridge on the dashboard →
- 55.8% of the Q4/2026 target by the adjusted commit (R$103K) Should the official forecast switch to the number adjusted by track record? See accuracy by rep →
Before deciding: what can distort these numbers
- Sales costs, the customer base and gross margin are fictitious (scripts/gerar_receita.py). 78.0% gross margin; in LTV, customer lifetime is capped at 5 years.
- Between Jun 8 and Jun 21, 2026, 56% of new contacts arrived as DIRECT_TRAFFIC, against 8% in the previous weeks. It could be a broken UTM: paid leads without attribution inflate Direct and disappear from the campaigns' numbers.
- google_ads had no spend for 15 days (May 12 to May 26, 2026). Leads and MQLs from that platform drop in the period because of the pause, not performance.